The American Psychiatric Association (APA) has updated its Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, including with new information specifically addressed to individuals in the European Economic Area. As described in the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, this website utilizes cookies, including for the purpose of offering an optimal online experience and services tailored to your preferences.

Please read the entire Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. By closing this message, browsing this website, continuing the navigation, or otherwise continuing to use the APA's websites, you confirm that you understand and accept the terms of the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, including the utilization of cookies.

×

Objective: Prevention of late-life depression, a common, disabling condition with often poor outcomes in primary care, requires identification of seniors at highest risk of incident episodes. The authors examined a broad range of clinical, functional, and psychosocial predictors of incident depressive episodes in a well-characterized cohort of older primary care patients. Method: In this observational cohort study, patients age ≥65 years without current major depression, recruited from practices in general internal medicine, geriatrics, and family medicine, received annual follow-up assessments over a period of 1 to 4 years. Of 617 enrolled subjects, 405 completed the 1-year follow-up evaluation. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID) determined incident major depressive episodes. Each risk indicator’s predictive utility was examined by calculating the risk exposure rate, incident risk ratio, and population attributable fraction, leading to determination of the number needed to treat in order to prevent incident depression. Results: A combination of risks, including minor or subsyndromal depression, impaired functional status, and history of major or minor depression, identified a group in which fully effective treatment of five individuals would prevent one new case of incident depression. Conclusions: Indicators routinely assessed in primary care identified a group at very high risk for onset of major depressive episodes. Such markers may inform current clinical care by fostering the early detection and intervention critical to improving patient outcomes and may serve as the basis for future studies refining the recommendations for screening and determining the effectiveness of preventive interventions.