Am J Psychiatry 1997; 154:87-92
Copyright © 1997 by American Psychiatric Association
Predicting academic performance of medical students: the first three years
C Hoschl and J Kozeny
3rd Medical Faculty, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this exploratory study was to identify a cluster
of variables that would most economically explain variations in the grade
point averages of medical students during the first 3 years of study.
METHOD: Data were derived from a study of 92 students admitted to the 3rd
Faculty of Medicine in 1992-1993 academic year and who were still in the
medical school at the end of the sixth semester (third year). Stepwise
regression analysis was used to build models for predicting log-transformed
changes in grade point average after six semesters of study-at the end of
the first, second, and third years. Predictor variables were chosen from
four domains: 1) high school grade point averages in physics, mathematics,
and the Czech language over 4 years of study, 2) results of admission tests
in biology, chemistry, and physics, 3) admission committee's assessment of
the applicant's ability to reproduce a text, motivation to study medicine,
and social maturity, and 4) scores on the sentimentality and attachment
scales of the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire. RESULTS: The
regression model, which included performance in high school physics,
results of the admission test in physics, assessment of the applicant's
motivation to study medicine, and attachment scale score, accounted for 32%
of the change in grade point average over six semesters of study. The
regression models using the first-, second-, and third-year grade point
averages as the dependent variables showed slightly decreasing amounts of
explained variance toward the end of the third year of study and within
domains, changing the structure of predictor variables. CONCLUSIONS: The
results suggest that variables chosen from the assessment domains of high
school performance, written entrance examination, admission interview, and
personality traits may be significant predictors of academic success during
the first 3 years of medical study.
