Am J Psychiatry 1986; 143:45-49
Copyright © 1986 by American Psychiatric Association
The clouded crystal ball: a 35-year follow-up of psychiatrists' predictions
CK Aldrich
In 1946-1949 psychiatrists examined in depth more than 200 students from
four first-year medical school classes and predicted their future
adjustment. Judging by the former students' replies to a questionnaire in
1981-1982, the psychiatrists' favorable predictions were for the most part
borne out, whereas the unfavorable predictions were much less likely to
have been realized. The psychiatrists appeared to have overemphasized the
significance of the psychopathology they discovered and to have
underestimated the potential of many of these young adults for spontaneous
personality change.
