OBJECTIVE: This study examined whether an empirically derived
multivariate typology can predict outcome in treated alcoholics. METHOD:
Two hundred fifty-nine hospitalized male alcoholics were divided into two
subtypes by means of cluster analysis of clinical factors. Type A showed
the features of sporadic late-onset alcoholism, whereas type B manifested
the characteristics of familial early-onset alcoholism. The prospective
3-year outcomes in the two subtypes were compared. RESULTS: The follow-up
rate was 83%. The mortality and abstinence rates for type A patients (N =
98) were 15.3% and 32.7%, respectively, and for type B patients (N = 116),
23.3% and 18.1%, respectively. The age-corrected relative mortality risk
and relative abstinence rate for type A patients compared with type B
patients were 0.59 and 1.60, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Familial
early-onset alcoholism has a poor outcome in Japan, and this multivariate
typology has high predictive validity.Abstract Teaser