OBJECTIVE: As the nation debates issues of national health care reform,
psychiatrists seek equal status with other medical colleagues. To defend
psychiatry in the national arena, the accuracy of psychiatric diagnoses
must be measured. Indexes of accuracy such as sensitivity and specificity
provide valuable information, yet they are rarely computed because there is
no "gold standard" with which to compare them. The goal of this article is
to show how this problem can be overcome and to encourage nosologists to
use accuracy statistics in assessing the adequacy of psychiatric diagnoses.
METHOD: The authors reviewed the literature on medical decision making to
find methodological approaches to assessing diagnostic accuracy in the
absence of gold standards. RESULTS: A lack of such standards is not unique
to psychiatry and has been addressed with a variety of novel analytic
procedures. Although these methods differ in many respects, each recognizes
that the conventional 2 x 2 table of interrater agreement does not provide
enough data for estimating diagnostic accuracy. After defining the data
needed, each method provides a mathematical model that estimates accuracy
statistics and the prevalence of a disorder. Most of these methods are
variants of latent class analysis. The authors reanalyzed data from one of
the reviewed papers to show that similar inferences about accuracy of
diagnoses could be drawn from a conventional latent class analysis.
CONCLUSIONS: There are potential pitfalls in using latent structure
methods, but their cautious use would provide valuable information for
psychiatric nosology. These methods supplement, but do not replace, data
about outcome, family history, laboratory studies, and other validating
criteria in making accurate diagnoses.Abstract Teaser