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The American Journal of Psychiatry, VOL. 143, No. 1

REGULAR ARTICLES | January 01, 1986

The clouded crystal ball: a 35-year follow-up of psychiatrists' predictions

Am J Psychiatry 1986;143:45-49.

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Abstract

In 1946-1949 psychiatrists examined in depth more than 200 students from four first-year medical school classes and predicted their future adjustment. Judging by the former students' replies to a questionnaire in 1981-1982, the psychiatrists' favorable predictions were for the most part borne out, whereas the unfavorable predictions were much less likely to have been realized. The psychiatrists appeared to have overemphasized the significance of the psychopathology they discovered and to have underestimated the potential of many of these young adults for spontaneous personality change.

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