The authors report on the course of illness in 101 patients who were in
an episode (the "index episode") of major depressive disorder when they
entered a clinical research study, recovered from that episode, and then
relapsed into a new episode (the "first prospective episode") of the
disorder. They found a 22% probability that these patients' first
prospective episode would last at least 1 year, similar to the 21% rate of
chronicity previously reported for the index episode. A long prior episode,
older age, and low family income were found to predict chronicity in the
first prospective episode.Abstract Teaser